The long-simmering rivalry between Japan and China, triggered by Japan’s purchase of several Senkaku Islands, is a gathering typhoon that threatens the entire region. The US must take decisive steps to mediate this dispute, or it will paralyse trade in Asia, and by extension, global commerce. As a trade-dependent state, Washington has a major stake in keeping Asia’s maritime trade routes open. To successfully resolve the dispute, it is essential that the US insist on multilateral mediation. American leadership in diplomacy would demonstrate its commitment to the region’s peaceful development and burnish the US' position as a leader in Asia. The purchase of the Senkaku Islands, which the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands, has sparked the most venomous anti-Japanese protests in China since the two nations normalised diplomatic relations in 1972. Japanese businesses throughout China have been vandalised and looted, prompting Panasonic, Toyota and others to suspend operations in China. Both nations selectively use regional history and international law to justify their claims on the islands. The nation in possession of the island chain would have bolstered fishing access and exclusive rights to the expansive undersea resources, including large mineral, natural gas and bountiful oil deposits, purportedly matching Iraq’s total reserves. There are also strategic considerations. Both nations wish to expand the operational reach of their naval and air forces. Defence planners see the barren rocks as potential hubs for runways, docks, and repair and fueling stations. Leaders on both sides see the islands as a litmus test for national resolve and prestige. Nationalist sentiments are widespread and the belligerence of any one of the numerous naval commanders patrolling both sides could spark a conflagration at sea. Since the end of World War II the US-led security framework in East Asia, largely enforced by the American Navy, has assured open sea lanes, enabling robust economic growth in the region through unprecedented trade. As US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta has said, mediation is essential to peaceful resolution. The US should renew its offer to serve as a third-party multilateral mediator for all of the two dozen East Asian maritime territorial disputes. Multilateral mediation, in addition to promoting regional transparency, reduces the opportunity for one nation to intimidate or coerce another. It would also mitigate the regional insecurity that is fuelling the contemporary naval arms race. To signal its continued resolve, the US should honour its treaty alliance with Japan through increased vessel patrols, joint military trainings and continued technology sharing. Along with South Korea, Taiwan and Australia, Japan forms the bedrock of America’s East Asian alliance. America’s continued union with Japan influences US relations with important nations throughout the region. India aims to thwart Chinese influence in South Asia, while the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia all seek to avoid Chinese dominion. The latter have hedged their bets with overtures to China rather than entrusting security to promises of American protection. The US can stem the tide of this typhoon while advancing its commitment to open sea lanes and multilateral mediation, building momentum for a rebalancing of power in Asia that is essential for 21st century American leadership. *Greg Nance  did an MPhil in Management and is a Shanghai-based entrepreneur. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org. Photo credit: Creative Commons and Jacques de Goldfiem. This is an edited version of Greg's blog for the Seattle Times.
My research broadly tackles questions of technology, equity, and accountability within the Global South. I emphasise the West’s use of sub-Saharan Africa as a testing ground or laboratory for its nascent technologies before launching them in the West. This blog is an excerpt from my recent presentation at the 2022 Gates Day of Research, titled […]
Algorithmic decision-making systems applied in social contexts drape value-laden solutions in an illusory veil of objectivity. Machine learning plays an increasingly prominent role in mediating institutional decisions in everything from corporate hiring practices to criminal sentencing. This ongoing AI spring has invigorated discussions of the ethical dimensions of these techno-social arrangements. In particular, there is […]
On March 9th, Mohamed A. El-Erian joined the Gates Cambridge community for a virtual fireside chat, where he discussed decision-making in conditions of uncertainty, the economic impact of the pandemic and relief efforts and the importance of diversity of thought and scenario planning. El-Erian is President of Queens’ College, Cambridge and Chief Economic Advisor of […]
Last Sunday represented a tipping point in the recent history of Belarus which has had an immediate effect on the lives of its citizens, including mine. Independent exit polls and observers representing the diplomatic community, verified by the crowdsourcing platform Golos, show that, had it been a fair and transparent election, the uninterrupted, 26-year-long reign […]